Sun, Mar 11, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 08 | 15 | 119 |
| NJD | 111 | 07 | 313 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:35NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: David Clarkson, Ilya Kovalchuk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 0:16PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 2:45NJDAnton VolchenkovGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 8:08NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 14:19NJDZach ParisePPAssists: Patrik Elias, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.25 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 19:18PHIBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:32NJDDavid Clarkson: Charging2 min
- P2 4:54PHIJody Shelley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:54PHIJody Shelley: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:26NJDBryce Salvador: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:20NJDAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min
- P3 7:20PHIMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:39PHIZac Rinaldo: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 18:16PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartnell won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux12:49
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Shelley – Rinaldo – Wellwood2:27
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Brière – Wellwood – Read2:32
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Wellwood – Couturier2:42
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gustafsson14:35
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Lilja – Manning13:28
xG 0.43–0.88 (33%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann12:50
xG 0.23–1.03 (18%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson11:36
xG 0.81–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Boulton – Janssen – Carter4:10
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus10:46
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique12:29
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky11:22
xG 1.31–0.09 (94%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Greene3:36
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky2:58
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).