Sun, Mar 11, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 15 | 27 | 06 | 01 | 319 |
| NYR | 111 | 113 | 110 | 12 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:15NYIJohn TavaresAssists: PA Parenteau, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 18:47NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Henrik Lundqvist · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 7:44NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Mark Streit, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 16:03NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:24NYIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: John Tavares, Milan Jurcina · Snap, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 3:29NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brandon Prust · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 4:54NYRMarian GaborikPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:14NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:14NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:49NYIJosh Bailey: Holding2 min
- P1 18:26NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:57NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 11:08NYRBrian Boyle: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:01NYIEvgeni Nabokov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:17NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00NYRBrandon Prust: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00NYIEvgeni Nabokov: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21NYIFrans Nielsen: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:17NYRMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 2:56NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 4:54NYITravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Bailey – Ullstrom – Niederreiter7:16
xG 0.21–0.37 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:14
xG 1.17–1.46 (44%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:26
xG 0.12–0.46 (20%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Haley5:41
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:41
xG 1.24–1.34 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Staios – Jurcina8:54
xG 0.57–0.81 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Streit – Reese11:28
xG 0.08–0.35 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Hagelin4:59
xG 0.66–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Anisimov – Stepan3:06
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Zuccarello2:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Dubinsky – Hagelin6:43
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Bickel2:06
xG 1.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Eminger – Stralman9:34
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Bickel8:48
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).