Mon, Mar 12, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 115 | 113 | 00 | 240 |
| COL | 111 | 011 | 19 | 12 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48COLJamie McGinnAssists: Ryan O'Byrne, David Jones · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 19:58ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Bobby Ryan, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P3 13:13COLKevin PorterAssists: Jan Hejda, Cody McLeod · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 16:08ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Matt Beleskey, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:52COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Matt Hunwick, Steve Downie · Slap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P3 0:10ANASaku Koivu: Interference2 min
- P3 15:52COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Pelley – Smith-Pelly10:00
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Blake – O'Marra – Beleskey6:40
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Ryan – Palmieri12:41
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Hagman14:36
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Brookbank14:21
xG 1.16–0.47 (71%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Fowler19:39
xG 1.23–0.63 (66%)attempts 25–19goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Visnovsky3:29
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Porter – McLeod7:18
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Mueller – Olver – O'Reilly2:08
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:57
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn14:43
xG 0.47–0.72 (39%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hejda15:36
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Hunwick – Wilson18:13
xG 0.75–1.14 (40%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson15:52
xG 0.31–1.21 (20%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).