Tue, Mar 13, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 5, New York Islanders 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 211 | 211 | 02 | 2 | 528 |
| NYI | 210 | 211 | 07 | 02 | 1 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:39NYITravis HamonicPPAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:05NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mark Streit, Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.54 xG0–3
- P2 9:33WSHMike KnubleAssists: Dennis Wideman, Keith Aucoin · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 11:44NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Kyle Okposo, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 19:07WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–4
- P3 1:51WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Marcus Johansson, Keith Aucoin · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 10:15WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Keith Aucoin, Joel Ward · Tip-in, 0.29 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
- 3. NYI John Tavares scored
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 5. NYI Matt Moulson stopped
- 6. WSH Dmitry Orlov stopped
- 7. NYI Mark Streit stopped
- 8. WSH Matt Hendricks scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:12WSHJeff Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:13WSHJay Beagle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:39WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:59WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:40WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Ovechkin – Johansson9:06
xG 0.86–0.20 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Knuble – Ward – Aucoin7:56
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Ward – Hendricks – Beagle2:14
xG 0.03–0.01 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Semin – Perreault9:55
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Orlov14:06
xG 1.27–0.26 (83%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Wideman – Schultz15:05
xG 0.88–0.20 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Wideman – Alzner4:40
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestUllstrom – Cizikas – Niederreiter8:04
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Martin10:23
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares13:43
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 6–14goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey11:49
xG 0.21–0.76 (22%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Eaton – Jurcina13:14
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Staios – Streit15:35
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic19:55
xG 0.48–0.74 (39%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).