Tue, Mar 13, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 211 | 09 | 229 |
| NYR | 110 | 212 | 16 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Dan Girardi, John Mitchell · Snap, 0.43 xG0–1
- P2 10:12NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 13:11NYRBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 14:44CARTim BrentPPAssists: Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 15:16CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Brandon Sutter, Patrick Dwyer · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 13:00NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:34NYRStu Bickel: Holding2 min
- P1 12:27NYRCarl Hagelin: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:42NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Interference2 min
- P2 2:41CARChad LaRose: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:34NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:29CARTim Gleason: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:22CARAndreas Nodl: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Nodl – Sutter3:48
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Bowman4:46
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Skinner11:05
xG 0.57–0.80 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Ruutu – Staal – Nodl2:45
xG 0.11–0.38 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – McBain2:26
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Allen – Sanguinetti4:58
xG 0.03–0.05 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk12:54
xG 1.50–1.66 (48%)attempts 19–19goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Hagelin13:59
xG 1.79–0.48 (79%)attempts 23–9goals 3–0
- Dubinsky – Anisimov – Stepan3:03
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Zuccarello2:27
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust8:06
xG 0.60–0.72 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:47
xG 1.95–1.27 (61%)attempts 22–17goals 2–0
- Staal – Bickel17:07
xG 0.93–0.43 (68%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Eminger – Stralman7:28
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).