Tue, Mar 13, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 0, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 06 | 03 | 017 |
| PHI | 07 | 113 | 29 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:07PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 2:14PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Daniel Brière · Backhand, 0.40 xG0–2
- P3 15:11PHIDaniel BrièreENAssists: Jakub Voracek, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.71 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:15PHIBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:46PHINicklas Grossmann: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:17NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:47NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:25PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:25NJDAlexei Ponikarovsky: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:45PHINicklas Grossmann: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 14:47PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:47NJDEric Boulton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:42NJDPetr Sykora: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:50NJDEric Boulton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:50NJDEric Boulton: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:50PHIAndreas Lilja: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson8:14
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique9:17
xG 0.04–0.52 (8%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Boulton – Bernier – Carter7:27
xG 0.04–0.55 (7%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus8:19
xG 0.17–0.96 (15%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Fayne – Greene11:45
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Salvador – Larsson9:51
xG 0.08–0.43 (16%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky9:02
xG 0.07–0.42 (13%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Voracek – Wellwood6:11
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier8:14
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux9:09
xG 0.45–0.25 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read7:09
xG 0.08–0.18 (30%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Carle9:11
xG 0.81–0.16 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Lilja – Gustafsson11:13
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann13:05
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).