Wed, Mar 14, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 03 | 010 | 09 | 022 |
| EDM | 012 | 212 | 13 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:40EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 19:55EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 18:27EDMLinus OmarkENAssists: Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.65 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:20EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P2 3:20CBJJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:55EDMTaylor Hall: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:15CBJColton Gillies: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:49CBJCam Atkinson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:36CBJRick Nash: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:09EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Letestu – Atkinson10:57
xG 0.76–0.41 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Byers – Boll – Johansen8:37
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Boyce – Russell – Gillies8:26
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard11:08
xG 0.13–0.74 (15%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Johnson15:37
xG 0.93–0.83 (53%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Moore2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lebda – Moore12:55
xG 0.32–0.45 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Hall13:16
xG 0.80–0.26 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:49
xG 0.98–0.52 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Omark9:10
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Belanger – Hordichuk – Petrell3:31
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry14:50
xG 1.06–0.46 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Potter – Peckham10:36
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Schultz – Whitney13:32
xG 0.68–0.52 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).