Thu, Mar 15, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 2, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 19 | 19 | 226 |
| FLA | 16 | 311 | 212 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:57FLAMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Stephen Weiss · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 0:38FLAMarcel GocAssists: Brian Campbell, Mikael Samuelsson · Deflected, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 4:53BOSJoe CorvoAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Brian Rolston · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 6:32FLAStephen WeissGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.29 xG1–3
- P2 15:27FLAJohn MaddenAssists: Jerred Smithson, Krys Barch · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 1:44BOSBrian RolstonPPAssists: Zdeno Chara · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 7:51FLATomas KopeckyUnassisted · Slap, 0.24 xG2–5
- P3 17:24FLAWojtek WolskiAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Jason Garrison · Slap, 0.14 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:09BOSBrad Marchand: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:50FLAJose Theodore: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P1 16:58BOSShawn Thornton: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:02FLAMarcel Goc: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:29BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin14:09
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Rolston – Kelly – Pouliot10:22
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Krejci – Lucic – Caron13:27
xG 0.14–0.31 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:14
xG 0.10–0.62 (13%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Seidenberg12:31
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Chara – Boychuk13:26
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid5:05
xG 0.12–0.09 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Wolski12:53
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Sturm – Kopecky – Matthias7:44
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim9:39
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Madden – Barch – Smithson5:24
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson17:05
xG 0.79–0.24 (77%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Campbell – Garrison17:17
xG 0.79–0.36 (69%)attempts 13–12goals 3–0
- Weaver – Ellerby15:16
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).