Thu, Mar 15, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 09 | 15 | 014 | 128 |
| CGY | 19 | 26 | 14 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17CGYSven BaertschiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 5:16CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 17:37PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Ray Whitney, Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:10CGYMatt StajanAssists: Cory Sarich · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 14:56CGYAlex TanguaySHAssists: Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:49PHXShane Doan: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:54PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:54CGYGuillaume Desbiens: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:01CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:53CGYOlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:56PHXMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:15CGYSven Baertschi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nemisz won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Doan – Vermette7:46
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Langkow – Doan – Torres5:24
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vermette – Brule4:01
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brule – Boedker3:18
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Ekman-Larsson14:40
xG 0.47–0.14 (78%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Yandle14:11
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Morris – Schlemko15:58
xG 0.24–0.92 (20%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Nemisz – Baertschi7:02
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross7:20
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Comeau – Horak2:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Desbiens – Comeau – Horak6:32
xG 0.02–0.04 (29%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Giordano15:57
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Babchuk – Smith9:38
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Sarich – Bouwmeester18:15
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 3–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).