Thu, Mar 15, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 1, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 013 | 010 | 03 | 0 | 133 |
| SJS | 013 | 015 | 14 | 03 | 1 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 0:55SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. SJS Martin Havlat stopped
- 2. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 3. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. NSH Andrei Kostitsyn stopped
- 5. SJS Ryane Clowe scored
- 6. NSH David Legwand stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:23SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:28NSHAndrei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:43SJSDaniel Winnik: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:43NSHPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:43SJSMartin Havlat: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49NSHDavid Legwand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:47NSHAndrei Kostitsyn: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:56NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Yip – Smith7:05
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Wilson7:40
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Legwand – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist10:56
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn11:28
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber20:22
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 26–19goals 0–0
- Gill – Bouillon4:57
xG 0.05–0.10 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Ellis10:10
xG 0.35–0.54 (40%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Couture11:08
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Mitchell – Winnik9:18
xG 0.12–0.07 (61%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Ferriero – Galiardi6:19
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Clowe12:40
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic7:43
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Braun7:57
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic9:53
xG 0.34–0.19 (65%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).