Fri, Mar 16, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 03 | 03 | 00 | 114 |
| OTT | 010 | 012 | 110 | 11 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:18MTLTomas PlekanecSHAssists: Ryan White · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 6:27OTTColin GreeningAssists: Zack Smith, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- OT 3:07OTTFilip KubaGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 3:05OTTColin Greening: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:05MTLP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:05OTTColin Greening: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:25MTLPetteri Nokelainen: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:27OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:27MTLBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:31MTLPetteri Nokelainen: Holding2 min
- P1 19:27MTLRyan White: Holding2 min
- P1 19:27MTLYannick Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:27OTTNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:54MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:57MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:59OTTErik Condra: Holding2 min
- P2 11:55OTTMilan Michalek: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:07OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:07MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:06MTLErik Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 3:56MTLDavid Desharnais: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:20MTLRyan White: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBlunden – Eller – Leblanc7:12
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Palushaj3:51
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – White7:11
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:26
xG 0.05–0.91 (5%)attempts 2–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Subban12:33
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Emelin – Weber9:21
xG 0.05–0.42 (11%)attempts 1–18goals 0–0
- Campoli – St-Denis8:34
xG 0.24–0.75 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGreening – Condra – Smith3:15
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening4:54
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler2:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Klinkhammer – Turris5:13
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson12:46
xG 0.90–0.05 (95%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Phillips – Gilroy7:38
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen8:55
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).