Fri, Mar 16, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 06 | 111 | 222 |
| WPG | 17 | 114 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:08WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:30WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 16:10WPGNik AntropovAssists: Tim Stapleton, Antti Miettinen · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 0:27WSHMathieu PerreaultPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 9:21WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Alexander Burmistrov · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:30WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:09WPGRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:17WSHTroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:21WSHMike Knuble: Holding2 min
- P2 17:43WSHBrooks Laich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:50WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:43WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:41WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:41WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:38WPGRon Hainsey: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Knuble – Laich – Ovechkin2:49
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Semin – Perreault5:59
xG 0.09–0.13 (43%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Knuble – Ward – Aucoin7:24
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Johansson4:57
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Orlov6:45
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Green4:46
xG 0.07–0.06 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Schultz6:50
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Kane – Burmistrov8:28
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:48
xG 0.37–0.19 (67%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton7:44
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Slater – Fehr – Glass7:23
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien14:06
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Clitsome14:25
xG 0.61–0.32 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Stuart – Jones12:43
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).