Fri, Mar 16, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 18 | 02 | 119 |
| EDM | 29 | 010 | 16 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:18EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Teemu Hartikainen, Jeff Petry · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 12:24CGYMark GiordanoUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 9:25EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Ryan Jones, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:18CGYCory Sarich: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:18EDMRyan Whitney: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:18EDMRyan Whitney: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:47CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 2:50CGYAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:42EDMAles Hemsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:42CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:27CGYSven Baertschi: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:53EDMAles Hemsky: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:53CGYBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:57CGYAnton Babchuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:17CGYDavid Moss: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:54CGYJarome Iginla: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Moss – Horak2:33
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Comeau5:21
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan15:30
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross2:59
xG 0.07–0.34 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Smith8:21
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Sarich – Bouwmeester11:17
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Babchuk2:28
xG 0.00–0.02 (11%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins4:47
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hartikainen5:54
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Belanger – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins2:15
xG 0.06–0.00 (97%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Petrell6:18
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Whitney12:04
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Sutton – Potter2:31
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Potter – Peckham7:47
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).