Sat, Mar 17, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 18 | 112 | 02 | 2 | 229 |
| BOS | 211 | 08 | 013 | 01 | 3 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23BOSChris KellyAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Brian Rolston · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 17:07BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:16PHIMatt ReadPPAssists: Daniel Brière, Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:43PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Braydon Coburn, Matt Read · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS David Krejci scored
- 2. PHI Matt Read scored
- 3. BOS Tyler Seguin scored
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 5. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 6. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:55BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:55PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:37BOSJordan Caron: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:58PHIJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:24BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:49PHIZac Rinaldo: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:08BOSJohnny Boychuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:08PHIMax Talbot: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:17BOSTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:04BOSShawn Thornton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lucic won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux12:25
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Brière – Voracek – Wellwood2:41
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Wellwood – Couturier3:06
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read5:10
xG 0.06–0.37 (13%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Gustafsson3:30
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Gustafsson3:13
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Timonen – Gustafsson3:39
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin13:25
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Rolston – Kelly – Pouliot9:46
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:35
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Caron12:25
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – McQuaid11:54
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Ference – Boychuk13:00
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Chara – Seidenberg18:43
xG 0.38–0.52 (43%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).