Sat, Mar 17, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 312 | 118 | 544 |
| NJD | 16 | 04 | 14 | 214 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 16:57NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Mark Fayne · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:10PITPascal DupuisAssists: Jordan Staal, Matt Niskanen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 11:44PITMatt CookeGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Tyler Kennedy · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 12:42PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 2:26NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Patrik Elias, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–2
- P3 5:56PITMatt CookeAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.19 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:55NJDMarek Zidlicky: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 12:10PITEric Tangradi: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:53NJDPetr Sykora: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:58PITJordan Staal: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:01NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:00NJDEric Boulton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:18PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:35NJDRyan Carter: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:35NJDSteve Bernier: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:56NJDDavid Clarkson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:56NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:56PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:56NJDDavid Clarkson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Josefson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal11:36
xG 0.83–0.18 (82%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Crosby7:23
xG 0.76–0.18 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Sullivan – Dupuis – Staal8:01
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Adams – Vitale – Tangradi4:06
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang15:29
xG 0.76–0.15 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Niskanen12:59
xG 0.87–0.66 (57%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Orpik – Michalek17:21
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson8:55
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Boulton – Bernier – Carter3:34
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Bernier – Carter2:10
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Clarkson2:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Greene3:01
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Larsson16:01
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky12:37
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).