Sat, Mar 17, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 218 | 07 | 01 | 3 | 338 |
| MTL | 110 | 09 | 17 | 04 | 2 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:53MTLAaron PalushajAssists: Petteri Nokelainen · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 2:00NYIMark StreitPPAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 16:05NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Travis Hamonic, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:38MTLLouis LeblancAssists: P.K. Subban, Peter Budaj · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 3. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 4. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 5. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 6. NYI PA Parenteau stopped
- 7. MTL Rene Bourque scored
- 8. NYI Matt Moulson scored
- 9. MTL Lars Eller stopped
- 10. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 11. MTL Andrei Markov stopped
- 12. NYI Josh Bailey scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:01MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:01NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:26NYIMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:08NYIKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P2 1:29MTLLouis Leblanc: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:34NYIPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:19NYIPA Parenteau: Diving2 min
- P2 11:19MTLLouis Leblanc: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:44MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P3 5:23MTLAaron Palushaj: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:43NYIMark Streit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Ullstrom – Cizikas5:25
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Martin – Niederreiter6:45
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares3:52
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Bailey3:44
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic17:45
xG 1.31–0.57 (69%)attempts 28–10goals 1–0
- Streit – Reese16:55
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Eaton – Jurcina10:13
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBlunden – White – Leblanc8:17
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Palushaj3:20
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Eller12:06
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty15:41
xG 0.52–1.19 (31%)attempts 11–25goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Emelin2:13
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban16:17
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 10–24goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin11:50
xG 0.21–0.50 (29%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).