Sat, Mar 17, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 3, New York Rangers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 17 | 17 | 320 |
| NYR | 116 | 010 | 016 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:43NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 15:01COLMatt HunwickAssists: Peter Mueller, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 9:51COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Ryan Wilson, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 19:46COLPaul StastnyENAssists: Ryan Wilson, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:40COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:15COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:20COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:20NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:08COLJay McClement: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:24NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P3 12:05COLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:09COLSteve Downie: Interference2 min
- P3 18:52NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – McGinn9:02
xG 0.76–0.46 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- McClement – McLeod – Olver4:19
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Landeskog13:35
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Mueller – Duchene8:55
xG 0.48–0.85 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson8:11
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Wilson5:25
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda15:58
xG 0.36–0.55 (40%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Mitchell – Zuccarello5:40
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust6:22
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Stepan12:57
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin13:17
xG 0.57–0.97 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh21:42
xG 1.27–0.34 (79%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Bickel – Erixon7:29
xG 0.63–0.43 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Del Zotto12:57
xG 0.62–1.14 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).