Sat, Mar 17, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 17 | 118 | 336 |
| VAN | 214 | 112 | 112 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Cam Atkinson, Steve Mason · Slap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:16VANDavid BoothAssists: Chris Higgins, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–1
- P1 17:35VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 12:38VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Cory Schneider · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 16:00CBJJack JohnsonAssists: Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.00 xG2–3
- P3 15:19VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 16:24CBJJames WisniewskiAssists: Jack Johnson, Mark Letestu · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:35VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P2 11:40CBJJack Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:57VANChris Higgins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:45CBJBrett Lebda: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:02CBJJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Letestu – Atkinson12:01
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Boyce – Boll – Russell6:34
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Gillies – Johansen6:54
xG 0.02–0.36 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard11:11
xG 0.09–0.62 (13%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Johnson20:58
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 21–25goals 3–0
- Johnson – Nikitin15:23
xG 0.23–0.82 (22%)attempts 6–22goals 0–1
- Lebda – Moore8:43
xG 0.07–0.68 (9%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Booth11:50
xG 1.04–0.15 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Burrows – Hansen9:56
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Kassian7:27
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Raymond13:08
xG 0.61–0.60 (50%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Tanev14:18
xG 0.86–0.21 (80%)attempts 24–9goals 1–1
- Salo – Hamhuis13:48
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler18:07
xG 0.45–0.79 (36%)attempts 19–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).