Sat, Mar 17, 2012·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 05 | 19 | 17 | 221 |
| LAK | 110 | 08 | 39 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:53LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Penner, Trevor Lewis · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 13:43NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 8:04LAKDustin PennerAssists: Trevor Lewis, Rob Scuderi · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 13:02LAKDwight KingGWGAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 16:19LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Jordan Nolan, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 17:18NSHMike FisherAssists: Kevin Klein, Martin Erat · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:14LAKJarret Stoll: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:30LAKDustin Brown: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:17LAKDustin Brown: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:01NSHJordin Tootoo: Interference2 min
- P3 2:02NSHJack Hillen: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:21NSHBrandon Yip: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist10:09
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Yip – Halischuk – Smith5:46
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Bourque8:33
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn11:29
xG 0.41–0.76 (35%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber16:51
xG 0.59–0.53 (52%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
- Bouillon – Klein10:38
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
- Gill – Hillen12:51
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Penner – Lewis10:38
xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan8:49
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Carter – Richards – King10:55
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar13:16
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty18:13
xG 1.00–0.58 (63%)attempts 22–12goals 2–1
- Greene – Martinez10:58
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Voynov16:02
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).