Sat, Mar 17, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 011 | 17 | 01 | 228 |
| SJS | 28 | 012 | 010 | 15 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 18:23SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 18:46DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 8:12DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Doug Janik · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 3:23SJSMartin HavlatGWGAssists: Justin Braun, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:57DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:52SJSDominic Moore: Interference2 min
- P2 6:51SJSTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P2 18:10DETValtteri Filppula: Holding2 min
- P3 5:09DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler13:53
xG 1.05–0.36 (75%)attempts 24–13goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Datsyuk12:35
xG 0.24–0.37 (40%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- Miller – Abdelkader – Helm8:54
xG 0.15–0.39 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak6:54
xG 0.10–0.60 (14%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Quincey14:34
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Janik – Smith11:16
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Stuart – Kronwall19:02
xG 0.40–1.01 (29%)attempts 17–26goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Mitchell – Winnik8:58
xG 0.60–0.13 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture13:12
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 1–2
- Winchester – Desjardins – Ferriero4:34
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Clowe11:58
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Demers10:30
xG 0.75–0.13 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic18:03
xG 0.86–0.53 (62%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Burns – Vlasic2:23
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).