Sun, Mar 18, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 117 | 110 | 011 | 02 | 240 |
| PHI | 08 | 02 | 214 | 13 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:21PITCraig AdamsAssists: Kris Letang, Pascal Dupuis · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 19:07PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Kris Letang, Craig Adams · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 0:31PHIKimmo TimonenPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 4:47PHIScott HartnellAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 4:59PHIScott HartnellGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 14:54PHIMatt Carle: Interference2 min
- P1 17:32PHIKimmo Timonen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:02PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:02PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:02PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:02PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:53PITChris Kunitz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:30PITZbynek Michalek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:29PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:40PITEvgeni Malkin: Elbowing2 min
- P3 14:56PITJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:56PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:56PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:56PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- OT 0:34PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- OT 0:34PHIBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Crosby6:37
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Kennedy – Crosby3:30
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal16:15
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Asham – Adams – Tangradi3:13
xG 0.19–0.11 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang16:27
xG 1.32–0.59 (69%)attempts 23–14goals 2–0
- Orpik – Michalek16:48
xG 0.87–0.24 (78%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Engelland – Niskanen10:30
xG 0.55–0.61 (48%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestShelley – Wellwood – Schenn3:17
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Giroux – Schenn2:02
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Rinaldo – Couturier9:25
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Read8:42
xG 0.15–0.60 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Manning – Gustafsson11:08
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Carle – Gustafsson2:17
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Timonen – Carle14:25
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).