Sun, Mar 18, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 03 | 28 | 07 | 218 |
| CHI | 212 | 212 | 15 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:35CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Duncan Keith, Bryan Bickell · Deflected, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 7:44CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Patrick Sharp, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 2:22WSHMike KnubleAssists: Keith Aucoin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 7:57CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Andrew Brunette, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 11:33CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Brent Seabrook, Bryan Bickell · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 14:28WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Michal Neuvirth, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 18:13CHIBryan BickellENAssists: Andrew Shaw · Snap, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 13:59WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:03CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ward – Aucoin4:26
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Brouwer – Beagle4:15
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Semin – Perreault4:35
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Laich – Ovechkin – Johansson5:45
xG 0.11–0.52 (17%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Green2:57
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Wideman – Orlov3:33
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson6:55
xG 0.03–0.23 (13%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Hossa – Kane9:17
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Shaw7:12
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Mayers – Frolik – Bollig3:44
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sharp – Stalberg – Kruger8:11
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook13:01
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Oduya – Leddy7:31
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Olsen6:11
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).