Sun, Mar 18, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 012 | 012 | 212 | 06 | 2 | 342 |
| EDM | 09 | 216 | 012 | 01 | 1 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:53EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Jones · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 7:26EDMAles HemskyAssists: Jeff Petry, Ladislav Smid · Snap, 0.56 xG0–2
- P3 7:58PHXRay WhitneyUnassisted · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 17:37PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Gilbert Brule · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. PHX Mikkel Boedker scored
- 3. EDM Sam Gagner scored
- 4. PHX Ray Whitney scored
- 5. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:25EDMLennart Petrell: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:25PHXKeith Yandle: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:29EDMRyan Jones: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:40PHXMartin Hanzal: Holding the stick2 min
- OT 0:27PHXKeith Yandle: Kneeing2 min
- OT 2:42EDMShawn Horcoff: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- OT 4:21EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Torres – Brule7:00
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal5:02
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vermette – Korpikoski5:10
xG 0.91–0.84 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Boedker5:34
xG 0.20–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klesla – Ekman-Larsson16:52
xG 0.92–1.18 (44%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Schlemko16:04
xG 0.80–1.19 (40%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle17:09
xG 0.95–1.47 (39%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Hartikainen13:22
xG 1.41–0.63 (69%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Jones – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:15
xG 1.33–1.13 (54%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Smyth – Horcoff – Petrell11:56
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Belanger – Hordichuk – Omark7:07
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry14:55
xG 2.28–1.32 (63%)attempts 22–19goals 1–2
- Potter – Peckham16:27
xG 0.79–0.76 (51%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Schultz – Whitney19:53
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).