Sun, Mar 18, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 17 | 19 | 219 | 435 |
| WPG | 112 | 27 | 014 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41CARJussi JokinenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:41WPGNik AntropovAssists: Tim Stapleton, Mark Stuart · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 5:46CAREric StaalPPAssists: Tim Brent, Jiri Tlusty · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 10:29WPGAntti MiettinenPPAssists: Evander Kane, Toby Enstrom · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 18:54WPGAntti MiettinenAssists: Spencer Machacek · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 10:24CAREric StaalAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 18:38CARChad LaRoseGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:08CARJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:30CARDerek Joslin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:05CARBryan Allen: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:12WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:07WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:49WPGEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:21WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:09CARPatrick Dwyer: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:09CARPatrick Dwyer: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 6:09WPGSpencer Machacek: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:09WPGSpencer Machacek: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:29CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:41WPGZach Bogosian: Charging5 min
- P2 10:41WPGZach Bogosian: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 14:25CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBrent – Dwyer – Bowman2:49
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tlusty – Sutter4:19
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Staal6:39
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter3:13
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain5:49
xG 0.84–0.30 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Harrison – Faulk12:07
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- McBain – Sanguinetti4:05
xG 0.02–0.13 (15%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStapleton – Kane – Burmistrov2:03
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:49
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton2:03
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Slater – Glass – Machacek4:33
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian6:41
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Jones2:38
xG 0.17–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Stuart3:07
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).