Mon, Mar 19, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 310 | 19 | 13 | 522 |
| DET | 012 | 110 | 211 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:25WSHMike KnubleAssists: Jason Chimera, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 14:51WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Brooks Laich, Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.40 xG3–0
- P2 5:15DETKyle QuinceyPPAssists: Brendan Smith, Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 17:24WSHKeith AucoinGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P3 0:36DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 12:52DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Brendan Smith · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 19:39WSHJason ChimeraENAssists: Mike Knuble, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:03DETNiklas Kronwall: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:04DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:57WSHJeff Halpern: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:20WSHMatt Hendricks: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:29DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:45WSHMike Knuble: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:45DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Chimera – Perreault10:38
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Aucoin – Semin – Johansson9:23
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Brouwer10:35
xG 0.10–0.32 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Halpern – Hendricks – Beagle7:49
xG 0.08–0.44 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamrlik – Green16:30
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 9–19goals 2–0
- Wideman – Alzner15:43
xG 0.18–0.53 (25%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Schultz – Carlson10:30
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Miller – Abdelkader10:50
xG 1.03–0.44 (70%)attempts 18–7goals 1–2
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Nyquist11:17
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler11:14
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak6:40
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJanik – Smith14:43
xG 0.92–0.41 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Stuart – Kronwall17:08
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- White – Quincey13:23
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).