Mon, Mar 19, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 214 | 320 | 06 | 540 |
| SJS | 210 | 111 | 09 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24SJSMartin HavlatPPAssists: Brent Burns, Ryane Clowe · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 7:15ANABobby RyanAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 9:20SJSRyane CloweAssists: Martin Havlat, Dan Boyle · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 17:52ANAFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Nick Bonino, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
- P2 0:56ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.58 xG3–2
- P2 9:59ANANate GueninGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 17:29SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns, Ryane Clowe · Deflected, 0.09 xG4–3
- P2 18:02ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Bobby Ryan, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:52SJSBrad Winchester: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:36ANAKyle Palmieri: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 16:05SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:22ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:22SJSBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:50ANADevante Smith-Pelly: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:43ANACorey Perry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Smith-Pelly14:16
xG 1.89–0.13 (94%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Ryan – Bonino – Palmieri8:36
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 3–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano13:52
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Sbisa12:11
xG 0.97–0.31 (76%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Guenin10:19
xG 0.87–0.42 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 3–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler17:55
xG 1.12–0.92 (55%)attempts 23–16goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Pavelski2:16
xG 0.15–0.10 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Clowe – Ferriero – Couture3:05
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Mitchell – Desjardins2:36
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Thornton – Havlat – Couture3:00
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Braun3:38
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Braun – Demers6:06
xG 0.67–0.40 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Boyle – Burns3:25
xG 0.11–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).