Tue, Mar 20, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 14 | 16 | 03 | 213 |
| PHI | 011 | 113 | 012 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04FLAStephen WeissAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:23FLASean BergenheimPPGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 7:54PHIEric WellwoodAssists: Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:54FLAWojtek Wolski: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:59FLAKris Versteeg: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:46FLASean Bergenheim: Holding2 min
- P1 16:04FLAEd Jovanovski: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:05PHIJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:48PHIPavel Kubina: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim11:53
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Wolski – Matthias7:12
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Sturm – Madden – Barch6:14
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg12:24
xG 0.22–0.48 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Garrison15:04
xG 0.59–0.68 (46%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson10:55
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
- Weaver – Kulikov15:25
xG 0.12–0.67 (16%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Rinaldo – Couturier6:42
xG 0.32–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux13:42
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Brière – Voracek – Wellwood8:47
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read10:53
xG 0.29–0.41 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann13:44
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:05
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lilja10:25
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).