Tue, Mar 20, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 1, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 114 | 011 | 134 |
| OTT | 015 | 07 | 012 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:20NJDIlya KovalchukPPGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:50OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Interference2 min
- P1 14:00NJDAnton Volchenkov: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 3:38NJDSteve Bernier: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:56OTTZenon Konopka: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:26OTTBen Bishop: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 10:29OTTZack Smith: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:22NJDDavid Clarkson: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:57NJDRyan Carter: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson8:25
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique10:04
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Sykora – Zubrus – Henrique2:15
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus10:12
xG 0.31–0.31 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene13:43
xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Larsson13:27
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky15:02
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Konopka – Klinkhammer – Butler4:59
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Turris11:20
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – O'Brien9:05
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Greening – Condra – Smith7:01
xG 0.16–0.42 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phillips – Gilroy11:06
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Karlsson2:00
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson16:23
xG 0.55–0.72 (43%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).