Tue, Mar 20, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 6, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 25 | 39 | 16 | 620 |
| NSH | 19 | 116 | 119 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:50EDMDarcy HordichukAssists: Ben Eager, Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:22EDMAles HemskyAssists: Jeff Petry, Teemu Hartikainen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 19:53NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 0:28EDMAles HemskyAssists: Teemu Hartikainen, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–1
- P2 5:51EDMRyan JonesPPGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 12:35NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Mike Fisher, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–2
- P2 14:03EDMAles HemskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
- P3 4:18NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 18:19EDMSam GagnerENAssists: Ales Hemsky · Snap, 0.61 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:09NSHShea Weber: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:28EDMBen Eager: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:54EDMLadislav Smid: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:32EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Interference2 min
- P3 8:42EDMJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P3 14:28EDMShawn Horcoff: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28NSHFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Hartikainen11:19
xG 0.65–0.33 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 3–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Petrell3:21
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:37
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Belanger – Hordichuk – Eager2:29
xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry15:45
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–21goals 3–1
- Schultz – Whitney14:36
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Potter – Peckham14:01
xG 0.16–1.04 (13%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Yip – Smith6:06
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Kostitsyn – Halischuk – Spaling6:54
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Bourque14:13
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 21–5goals 2–1
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn12:30
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber18:25
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 24–8goals 2–0
- Gill – Klein2:20
xG 0.47–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein12:18
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).