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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 20, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Phoenix Coyotes 3, Dallas Stars 4 (SO)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Dallas Stars

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHX190828050330
DAL15213014011433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:12DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Michael Ryder, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:14PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Ray Whitney, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:26DALMichael RyderPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 14:42DALMichael RyderAssists: Loui Eriksson, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
  5. P3 8:51PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonSHAssists: Daymond Langkow, Shane Doan · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 14:58PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
  2. 2. PHX Mikkel Boedker stopped
  3. 3. DAL Mike Ribeiro scored
  4. 4. PHX Ray Whitney stopped
  5. 5. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
  6. 6. PHX Shane Doan stopped
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 8:23DALTrevor Daley: Delaying game2 min
  2. P1 15:12DALTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 4:43PHXMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:54PHXShane Doan: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 5:54DALBrenden Morrow: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 5:54DALSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 5:54PHXRaffi Torres: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 5:54DALTrevor Daley: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 5:54PHXRostislav Klesla: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 5:54PHXShane Doan: Elbowing2 min
  11. P2 5:54PHXRaffi Torres: Charging2 min
  12. P2 5:54PHXRaffi Torres: Misconduct10 min
  13. P2 5:54PHXRostislav Klesla: Misconduct10 min
  14. P2 5:54DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
  15. P2 5:54DALSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
  16. P2 5:54DALTrevor Daley: Misconduct10 min
  17. P2 7:30DALAdam Burish: Tripping2 min
  18. P3 1:20PHXKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
  19. P3 7:33PHXAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
  20. P3 14:30DALJake Dowell: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
45% to win55% to win
← PHX attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXDAL
30Shots on goal33
2.2Expected goals3.3
64Shot attempts55
24Faceoffs won35
4Power plays4
39Penalty minutes39
35Hits31
10Blocked shots17
9Giveaways16
9Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Phoenix Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. Gordon – Bissonnette – Chipchura3:41

    xG 0.04–0.02 (60%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  2. Langkow – Doan – Torres4:10

    xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1

  3. Doan – Torres – Gordon2:41

    xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  4. Whitney – Vermette – Korpikoski12:01

    xG 0.61–0.97 (39%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. Rozsival – Yandle2:01

    xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  2. Klesla – Ekman-Larsson13:45

    xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1

  3. Rozsival – Ekman-Larsson2:50

    xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestRibeiro – Ryder – Eriksson10:32

    xG 0.72–0.12 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 2–1

  2. Burish – Dowell – Wandell5:04

    xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  3. Morrow – Ott – Benn10:19

    xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0

  4. Morrow – Burish – Benn2:55

    xG 0.01–0.03 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGoligoski – Larsen11:30

    xG 0.97–0.18 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1

  2. Souray – Daley2:35

    xG 0.59–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  3. Robidas – Daley2:43

    xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.3 xGPHX 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 79/100 · #215 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.98 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).