Tue, Mar 20, 2012·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 05 | 19 | 222 |
| LAK | 112 | 116 | 314 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:26LAKMike RichardsSHAssists: Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 15:48SJSMartin HavlatPPAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 15:49LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 4:00LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 6:56SJSDan BoyleAssists: Logan Couture, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 15:54LAKDustin PennerAssists: Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 19:44LAKJeff CarterENAssists: Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:34LAKAnze Kopitar: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 16:03SJSDominic Moore: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:53SJSTorrey Mitchell: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 2:41SJSAndrew Desjardins: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:58LAKJeff Carter: Interference2 min
- P3 4:00SJSBrent Burns: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Moore – Mitchell – Winnik8:19
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture13:21
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Clowe13:23
xG 0.11–0.61 (15%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Boyle – Braun2:53
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Boyle – Vlasic14:15
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- White – Braun3:29
xG 0.05–0.30 (15%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – King12:17
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar12:47
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis9:53
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan7:23
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Voynov14:16
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Doughty17:01
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Greene5:01
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).