Wed, Mar 21, 2012·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 117 | 06 | 131 |
| CAR | 114 | 114 | 111 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46CAREric StaalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 10:55CARJoni PitkanenGWGAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 12:33FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Stephen Weiss · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 8:14CAREric StaalPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:00CARJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:55FLAMikael Samuelsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:55CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:27FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:44CARDrayson Bowman: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:32CARTim Gleason: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:51FLAMike Weaver: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:56CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:31FLAJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:34CARJoni Pitkanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:43FLAJason Garrison: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:43FLAScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:43CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00FLAKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00CARTim Gleason: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg11:44
xG 1.06–0.46 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Bergenheim8:03
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Smithson – Upshall – Santorelli4:15
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim2:53
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov11:37
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson10:43
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Campbell – Garrison11:41
xG 0.87–0.95 (48%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Skinner10:29
xG 1.31–0.37 (78%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Bowman8:04
xG 0.38–0.68 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- LaRose – Staal – Tlusty8:57
xG 0.25–0.80 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain10:36
xG 0.96–0.35 (73%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Harrison – Faulk10:50
xG 0.69–0.74 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason13:11
xG 0.50–0.74 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).