Wed, Mar 21, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 1, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 06 | 09 | 02 | 127 |
| NYR | 113 | 06 | 011 | 14 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Ian White, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:58NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Henrik Lundqvist · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- OT 2:42NYRRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Brandon Dubinsky · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:30DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:43NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:54DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:20DETKyle Quincey: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Hudler13:28
xG 1.07–0.32 (77%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak5:03
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Nyquist14:58
xG 0.64–0.70 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Cleary – Miller – Abdelkader10:33
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJanik – Smith13:02
xG 1.16–0.74 (61%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall17:26
xG 0.81–0.88 (48%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- White – Quincey15:15
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Stepan14:32
xG 0.72–0.14 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Anisimov – Zuccarello7:22
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Prust5:09
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin14:06
xG 0.22–1.32 (14%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bickel – Erixon10:31
xG 0.75–0.78 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh21:59
xG 0.95–1.03 (48%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Staal – Del Zotto18:38
xG 0.24–0.60 (28%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).