Thu, Mar 22, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 010 | 09 | 00 | 1 | 131 |
| PHI | 011 | 17 | 08 | 02 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26WSHAlex OvechkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:05PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Andreas Lilja · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHI Matt Read scored
- 2. WSH Matt Hendricks scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
- 6. WSH Keith Aucoin stopped
- 7. PHI Wayne Simmonds scored
- 8. WSH Troy Brouwer stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:11PHIKimmo Timonen: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:58PHIMatt Carle: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 18:56PHIClaude Giroux: Interference2 min
- P3 1:56WSHJeff Halpern: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Chimera – Perreault10:21
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Halpern – Ward – Hendricks9:45
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Brouwer13:23
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Beagle – Johansson7:52
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Alzner18:24
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Schultz – Carlson13:36
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Green17:57
xG 0.43–1.17 (27%)attempts 12–23goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn13:38
xG 0.76–0.29 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier13:09
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Wellwood – Read4:38
xG 0.02–0.01 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux15:25
xG 0.65–0.86 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Carle16:10
xG 0.87–0.40 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lilja15:12
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Coburn – Grossmann16:21
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).