Thu, Mar 22, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 2, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 010 | 17 | 228 |
| DAL | 07 | 011 | 18 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46VANMason RaymondAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 4:18VANKevin BieksaGWGAssists: Mason Raymond, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P3 7:44DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Eric Nystrom, Kari Lehtonen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:21DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:21VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:21DALJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:21VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:05VANAndrew Alberts: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:05DALSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:43DALSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:48VANZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P2 10:27DALMike Ribeiro: Holding2 min
- P2 13:29DALMike Ribeiro: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:23DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:20VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding2 min
- P3 6:20DALMichael Ryder: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:20VANJannik Hansen: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:20VANJannik Hansen: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:20DALMichael Ryder: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:15VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Raymond – Kassian9:15
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Burrows – Kesler – Booth9:55
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Weise4:09
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Pahlsson – Higgins – Hansen11:00
xG 0.15–0.61 (19%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Edler14:25
xG 0.76–0.22 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev13:39
xG 0.15–0.20 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Alberts – Gragnani9:13
xG 0.17–0.57 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ryder – Eriksson6:57
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder5:25
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Burish – Dowell – Wandell3:25
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ott – Eriksson – Benn4:48
xG 0.00–0.01 (14%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen13:35
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Souray – Robidas12:51
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Daley – Pardy14:47
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).