Thu, Mar 22, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 2, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 015 | 217 | 241 |
| PHX | 29 | 19 | 07 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24PHXDaymond LangkowAssists: Raffi Torres, Gilbert Brule · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–1
- P1 15:43PHXKyle ChipchuraAssists: Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 16:55PHXRaffi TorresGWGAssists: Boyd Gordon, Gilbert Brule · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 4:28COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Shane O'Brien, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 14:21COLPaul StastnyAssists: Jamie McGinn · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:50PHXLauri Korpikoski: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:03COLMark Olver: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:55COLMark Olver: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:29PHXMichal Rozsival: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:47COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:09COLShane O'Brien: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:44COLPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:51COLPaul Stastny: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:51PHXRostislav Klesla: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – McGinn12:20
xG 1.74–0.21 (89%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Landeskog13:06
xG 0.90–0.33 (73%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- McClement – McLeod – Olver3:33
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hejduk – McLeod – Olver3:11
xG 0.04–0.12 (23%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Barrie15:37
xG 1.72–0.71 (71%)attempts 24–9goals 2–1
- O'Byrne – Hejda10:43
xG 0.98–0.22 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Wilson12:04
xG 0.19–1.27 (13%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Bissonnette – Chipchura4:15
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vermette – Korpikoski8:31
xG 0.23–0.35 (39%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker11:42
xG 0.46–0.79 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Langkow – Torres – Brule7:26
xG 0.51–1.03 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Ekman-Larsson14:14
xG 1.43–0.73 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Morris – Yandle13:25
xG 0.58–0.77 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Klesla – Stone8:34
xG 0.45–1.36 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).