Fri, Mar 23, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 27 | 13 | 00 | 3 | 417 |
| NJD | 018 | 19 | 215 | 04 | 2 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:47TORTyler BozakAssists: Luke Schenn, Matthew Lombardi · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 14:56TORNazem KadriAssists: Jake Gardiner, Ryan Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 18:57NJDJacob JosefsonAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 9:25TORDavid SteckelAssists: Joey Crabb, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 10:57NJDZach PariseAssists: Bryce Salvador, David Clarkson · Tip-in, 0.30 xG3–2
- P3 15:18NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Andy Greene, Adam Larsson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 3. NJD Zach Parise scored
- 4. TOR Tim Connolly scored
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 6. TOR Nazem Kadri scored
Penalties (2)
- P1 14:25TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:40TORJay Rosehill: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLombardi – Kessel – Bozak12:55
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Connolly – Steckel – Crabb14:04
xG 0.15–0.29 (35%)attempts 4–15goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Hamilton – Kadri10:38
xG 0.18–0.96 (16%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Liles – Franson6:24
xG 0.07–0.02 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Komisarek6:35
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Komisarek – Gardiner4:12
xG 0.09–0.36 (19%)attempts 1–4goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Parise – Clarkson3:37
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson7:57
xG 0.47–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus8:45
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique9:34
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky18:09
xG 0.93–0.19 (83%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Larsson13:35
xG 0.90–0.45 (66%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Fayne – Greene19:11
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 20–5goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).