Sat, Mar 24, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 1, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 116 | 05 | 04 | 125 |
| BUF | 011 | 117 | 29 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51MINSteven KampferAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Nick Johnson · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:12BUFThomas VanekAssists: Cody Hodgson, Corey Tropp · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 1:45BUFMarcus FolignoPPGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Jordan Leopold · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:59BUFCody HodgsonENAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:35BUFRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
- P2 9:34MINClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:57MINNick Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:57MINNick Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:57BUFTravis Turnbull: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:56BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:53MINDarroll Powe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:22MINKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Peters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer7:11
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe11:51
xG 0.47–0.52 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Cullen – Christensen – Clutterbuck8:53
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi14:06
xG 0.16–0.30 (34%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Stoner17:27
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Foster – Kampfer9:58
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Scandella – Prosser14:08
xG 0.25–0.60 (29%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Tropp – Hodgson10:53
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Roy – Pominville – Leino16:11
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Turnbull5:05
xG 0.19–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno12:06
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Sekera16:33
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer14:59
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Leopold – Myers15:01
xG 0.27–0.64 (30%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).