Sat, Mar 24, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 116 | 15 | 05 | 2 | 433 |
| TOR | 16 | 110 | 17 | 02 | 1 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:11TORCody FransonAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 12:19NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Tim Erixon, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 6:53TORJoey CrabbAssists: David Steckel, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 15:29NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 4:19NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 4:37TORTim ConnollyAssists: Joey Crabb, David Steckel · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 2. NYR Marian Gaborik stopped
- 3. TOR Tim Connolly scored
- 4. NYR Brad Richards scored
- 5. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 6. NYR Ryan Callahan scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:11TORJoey Crabb: Holding2 min
- P2 4:15TORRyan Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:54NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:59NYRBrian Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:53NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Anisimov – Stepan10:42
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Dubinsky2:05
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Anisimov2:50
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust7:38
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh19:40
xG 0.86–0.37 (70%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Staal – Del Zotto17:35
xG 0.44–0.55 (45%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
- Bickel – Erixon7:13
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 10–6goals 2–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Steckel – Crabb13:28
xG 0.79–0.09 (90%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Lombardi – Armstrong – Rosehill2:25
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Hamilton – Kadri10:15
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Lombardi – Kessel – Bozak12:58
xG 0.18–0.60 (24%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson17:46
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 1–2
- Franson – Gardiner14:52
xG 0.63–0.67 (48%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Liles – Schenn11:25
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).