Sat, Mar 24, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Ottawa Senators 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 213 | 114 | 113 | 440 |
| OTT | 19 | 412 | 37 | 828 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Colin Greening, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 9:46PITMatt CookeAssists: Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 13:01PITMatt CookeAssists: Sidney Crosby, Paul Martin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 0:33OTTSergei GoncharAssists: Nick Foligno, Daniel Alfredsson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 7:05OTTChris PhillipsPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Daniel Alfredsson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 7:41OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Nick Foligno, Sergei Gonchar · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 7:55PITTyler KennedyAssists: Steve Sullivan, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P2 16:07OTTDaniel AlfredssonSHGWGAssists: Milan Michalek, Jared Cowen · Snap, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 11:43PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Arron Asham, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
- P3 13:16OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–6
- P3 17:05OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–7
- P3 18:08OTTColin GreeningPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–8
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:35PITEric Tangradi: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:54PITMatt Cooke: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:00OTTRob Klinkhammer: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:50OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:19OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:19PITJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:29OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P3 15:05PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:33PITArron Asham: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:43OTTJared Cowen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Neal2:10
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Crosby3:32
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal3:42
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Asham – Adams – Tangradi3:42
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martin – Letang12:55
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Engelland – Lovejoy11:20
xG 0.18–0.48 (28%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
- Orpik – Michalek14:49
xG 0.49–0.92 (35%)attempts 15–13goals 0–3
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Foligno – Turris11:00
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening11:24
xG 0.88–0.68 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Alfredsson – Turris – Smith3:32
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Neil – Klinkhammer – O'Brien7:07
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Kuba6:06
xG 0.76–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Phillips – Karlsson4:17
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Kuba – Karlsson7:08
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).