Sat, Mar 24, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 04 | 19 | 011 | 124 |
| PHI | 18 | 210 | 115 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07PHIKimmo TimonenPPAssists: Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:44MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Lars Eller, Aaron Palushaj · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 7:57PHIDaniel BrièrePPGWGAssists: Matt Carle, Matt Read · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 17:38PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Ilya Bryzgalov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:07PHIMatt ReadAssists: Sean Couturier, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:18PHISean Couturier: Holding2 min
- P1 11:01MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:54MTLRyan White: Holding2 min
- P2 6:05MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:50PHIDaniel Brière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:47PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:48MTLErik Cole: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:20MTLJosh Gorges: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:20PHIPavel Kubina: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:34MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:06PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:06PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:06MTLRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:06PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:06MTLMike Blunden: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:45PHIIlya Bryzgalov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty12:25
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Eller9:41
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Palushaj6:15
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Blunden – White – Leblanc8:13
xG 0.01–0.29 (5%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampoli – Emelin3:28
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Campoli – St-Denis10:32
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin9:09
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn7:17
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Voracek – Wellwood – Read3:06
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux11:31
xG 0.35–0.32 (53%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier7:21
xG 0.39–0.37 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Carle10:41
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kubina – Gustafsson13:02
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann12:40
xG 0.60–0.80 (43%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).