Sat, Mar 24, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 09 | 19 | 125 |
| NSH | 010 | 25 | 113 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:56NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Alexander Radulov, Kevin Klein · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 10:01NSHGabriel BourqueGWGAssists: Nick Spaling, Andrei Kostitsyn · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 12:53WPGTim StapletonAssists: Spencer Machacek, Ben Maxwell · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 19:50NSHShea WeberENAssists: Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:11WPGToby Enstrom: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:52NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:29WPGRandy Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:38WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:30WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little13:26
xG 0.36–0.24 (61%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov6:51
xG 0.15–0.11 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Stapleton – Maxwell – Machacek7:40
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Miettinen – Slater – Glass10:26
xG 0.10–0.50 (16%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Jones8:55
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–2
- Enstrom – Byfuglien19:46
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 28–18goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian17:24
xG 0.25–0.66 (28%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestKostitsyn – Spaling – Bourque7:58
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 17–3goals 1–1
- Legwand – Radulov – Hornqvist11:29
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Legwand – Gaustad – Radulov2:16
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn11:50
xG 0.19–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber19:26
xG 0.85–0.43 (66%)attempts 24–24goals 0–0
- Gill – Klein15:26
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Ellis13:29
xG 0.37–0.43 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).