Sun, Mar 25, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 114 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 337 |
| FLA | 116 | 09 | 18 | 02 | 0 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55FLAStephen WeissAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 18:57NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 9:51FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 12:22NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Frans Nielsen, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA John Madden stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 3. FLA Wojtek Wolski stopped
- 4. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 5. FLA Marcel Goc stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:23NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:40NYIDavid Ullstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:26FLAStephen Weiss: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:01FLAJason Garrison: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Grabner – Ullstrom10:15
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:36
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Martin – Cizikas8:10
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:12
xG 0.60–0.83 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Reese19:47
xG 0.90–0.56 (62%)attempts 17–20goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:50
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Staios – Jurcina10:38
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Weiss – Fleischmann11:25
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim8:43
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Goc – Bergenheim – Versteeg3:54
xG 0.04–0.03 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sturm – Madden – Smithson5:43
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov17:12
xG 0.85–0.61 (58%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Campbell – Garrison16:32
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson13:39
xG 0.49–1.05 (32%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).