Sun, Mar 25, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 013 | 110 | 234 |
| PIT | 214 | 19 | 25 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 5:10NJDZach PariseUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 19:04PITJordan StaalAssists: Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 15:34PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Craig Adams · Snap, 0.33 xG1–3
- P3 3:37NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Travis Zajac, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 4:55PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 18:28PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Jordan Staal, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:36PITJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:13NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:06NJDAndy Greene: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:06PITJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:30NJDRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:20PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
- P3 19:20NJDPetr Sykora: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:58NJDMartin Brodeur: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Zajac10:18
xG 1.24–0.56 (69%)attempts 20–6goals 1–1
- Bernier – Carter – Josefson6:12
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Parise11:46
xG 0.63–0.59 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Josefson2:51
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky17:04
xG 1.46–0.75 (66%)attempts 20–15goals 2–2
- Fayne – Greene14:08
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Taormina – Larsson16:14
xG 0.52–0.72 (42%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal9:25
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Adams – Cooke – Staal6:49
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Park – Dupuis – Crosby2:31
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Kennedy – Crosby4:46
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang8:22
xG 1.08–0.55 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Martin – Engelland3:51
xG 0.41–0.09 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Engelland – Letang2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).