Sun, Mar 25, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 6, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 28 | 16 | 310 | 624 |
| CHI | 011 | 06 | 18 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Brandon Yip, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 15:28NSHAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: David Legwand, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 5:42NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, Shea Weber · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 2:00NSHFrancis BouillonAssists: Ryan Ellis, Matt Halischuk · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P3 5:58CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Nick Leddy, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 6:34NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.02 xG5–1
- P3 17:33NSHMike FisherAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Pekka Rinne · Snap, 0.10 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:56NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:56CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:36NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:32NSHBrandon Yip: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:39CHIDave Bolland: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:56CHISean O'Donnell: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:34NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P3 3:57NSHPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Kane
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Radulov – Hornqvist11:48
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Yip – Halischuk2:22
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Halischuk – Spaling – Bourque5:10
xG 0.08–0.11 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Kostitsyn9:38
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Ellis10:06
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 6–14goals 2–1
- Gill – Klein13:09
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber17:45
xG 0.84–0.94 (47%)attempts 13–21goals 2–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Stalberg – Frolik7:04
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Shaw10:20
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Brunette – Hossa – Kane9:48
xG 0.44–0.53 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Morrison – Sharp – Stalberg2:24
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Leddy15:31
xG 0.64–0.51 (55%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson16:48
xG 0.51–0.56 (48%)attempts 19–15goals 0–2
- O'Donnell – Olsen9:37
xG 0.22–0.56 (28%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).