Mon, Mar 26, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 4, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 117 | 210 | 112 | 439 |
| CGY | 113 | 417 | 05 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26DALJamie BennAssists: Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 6:53CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Lee Stempniak, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 0:44DALJamie BennAssists: Adam Burish, Adam Pardy · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 9:16CGYBlake ComeauUnassisted · Slap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 10:01CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Jarome Iginla, Anton Babchuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 14:29DALMike RibeiroAssists: Michael Ryder, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 16:58CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P2 19:32CGYAlex TanguayPPGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 5:24DALPhilip LarsenAssists: Sheldon Souray, Steve Ott · Backhand, 0.27 xG4–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:51DALTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:42CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:17CGYChris Butler: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:28DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:16DALSheldon Souray: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:43CGYMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:40DALMike Ribeiro: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:30DALAdam Burish: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:30CGYScott Hannan: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:37CGYLee Stempniak: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:37DALAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:59DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:33DALSteve Ott: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:52CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Benn8:03
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Morrow – Fiddler – Vincour5:40
xG 0.01–0.13 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson12:36
xG 0.21–0.81 (21%)attempts 10–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen7:25
xG 0.41–0.33 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas11:18
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Daley – Pardy10:53
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Cammalleri10:28
xG 0.48–0.24 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Jones5:19
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross8:06
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Stajan – Stempniak – Comeau10:56
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler16:44
xG 0.64–0.44 (60%)attempts 23–21goals 0–0
- Babchuk – Wilson8:01
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Hannan – Giordano11:30
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).