Mon, Mar 26, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 112 | 09 | 132 |
| SJS | 010 | 315 | 211 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:50SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Justin Braun, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 9:19SJSAndrew DesjardinsGWGAssists: Tommy Wingels, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 11:47COLShane O'BrienAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 15:44SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Michal Handzus, Dominic Moore · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 0:35SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 16:23SJSRyane CloweENAssists: Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:25COLShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:49COLRyan O'Byrne: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:33SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Holding2 min
- P2 19:21COLShane O'Brien: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:52SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:40COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDownie – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:32
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Kobasew – McClement – McLeod3:56
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McLeod – Olver2:32
xG 0.03–0.02 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn9:57
xG 0.93–1.42 (40%)attempts 20–12goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Johnson17:19
xG 0.97–0.74 (57%)attempts 26–16goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Wilson14:37
xG 0.84–0.71 (54%)attempts 25–9goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda12:24
xG 0.28–1.40 (17%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Clowe – Couture9:11
xG 1.40–0.19 (88%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Winnik – Desjardins – Wingels10:48
xG 1.14–0.43 (73%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Handzus – Moore – Mitchell6:41
xG 0.74–0.57 (56%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Clowe2:10
xG 0.03–0.05 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Burns13:09
xG 1.49–0.67 (69%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers9:07
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Braun9:03
xG 1.07–0.68 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).