Tue, Mar 27, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Rangers 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 113 | 19 | 110 | 332 |
| MIN | 06 | 213 | 07 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:23NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 3:05MINKyle BrodziakPPAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 7:58NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 11:52MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Devin Setoguchi · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 13:37NYRRuslan FedotenkoGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:03MINMarco Scandella: Holding2 min
- P1 15:50MINDevin Setoguchi: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:09MINErik Christensen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:09NYRBrian Boyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:14NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:35MINWarren Peters: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Dubinsky7:17
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin10:53
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Stepan5:24
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Prust4:26
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh16:32
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Staal – Bickel9:10
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto16:00
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPeters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer6:45
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe11:58
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi15:03
xG 0.59–0.92 (39%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Christensen – Rau – Clutterbuck9:59
xG 0.08–0.60 (11%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser15:09
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Foster – Kampfer9:47
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Stoner16:05
xG 0.39–0.79 (33%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).