Wed, Mar 28, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 04 | 215 | 29 | 428 |
| WPG | 011 | 28 | 05 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:58WPGSpencer MachacekAssists: Ben Maxwell, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 4:54WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 7:44NYRMichael Del ZottoSHAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 18:23NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 3:07NYRBrian BoyleGWGAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 10:06NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:24NYRStu Bickel: Holding2 min
- P1 10:41NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:20NYRAnton Stralman: Delaying game2 min
- P2 0:27NYRBrian Boyle: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:35NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:19WPGEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:00WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:52WPGAndrew Ladd: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:56NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:56WPGTanner Glass: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 8:46WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Hagelin9:01
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust2:50
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Prust2:45
xG 0.05–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Callahan6:34
xG 0.06–0.09 (41%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:43
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Del Zotto8:11
xG 0.13–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman7:36
xG 0.09–0.21 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Kane – Burmistrov11:22
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Stapleton – Maxwell – Machacek3:21
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Miettinen – Slater – Glass7:57
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little15:19
xG 0.51–0.92 (35%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Clitsome8:58
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian14:19
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:57
xG 0.48–0.98 (33%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).