Wed, Mar 28, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 15 | 08 | 118 | 231 |
| CBJ | 214 | 28 | 09 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:26CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 14:17CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 16:23DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Holmstrom · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 14:30CBJDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Nikita Nikitin, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 15:57CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Cam Atkinson, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 9:34DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:10DETBrad Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:03CBJJared Boll: Elbowing2 min
- P1 16:05CBJBrett Lebda: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:28DETCory Emmerton: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:27CBJVinny Prospal: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:27DETJiri Hudler: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:01CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:43DETKyle Quincey: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:31CBJAaron Johnson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen8:14
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Filppula – Hudler – Franzen2:15
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Abdelkader3:04
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Emmerton2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White16:35
xG 0.88–0.39 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Quincey9:50
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall11:09
xG 0.13–0.67 (16%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Atkinson10:07
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Russell – Dorsett – Johansen7:50
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Prospal – Nash – Letestu9:36
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Boyce – Boll – Gillies4:28
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLebda – Nikitin11:44
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 3–0
- Johnson – Moore11:56
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Johnson5:18
xG 0.39–0.41 (48%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).